Lake levels expected to come up short

Garrison Dam slated to be 12-15 feet below flood control zone at start of 2023



Missouri River reservoir levels, including that of Lake Sakakawea, are expected to be well below average when spring thaw hits in March.

The Northwestern Division of the Army Corps of Engineers hosted a series of public meetings over the past week looking at the short term forecast for the Missouri River and its six reservoirs. The meetings focused heavily on the river system’s anticipated spring 2023 storage level, which officials anticipate will reflect the strain of current drought conditions.

John Remus, chief of the USACE, Missouri River Basin Water Management Division said the Garrison Dam, Fort Peck and Oahe reservoirs are expected to be roughly 12 to 15 feet below base flood control levels on March 1.

The system as a whole is anticipated to be well below the normal storage levels, running at more than 9 million acre feet out of carryover and multi-use zones.

Anticipated shortages stem from dry conditions within the Missouri River basin, where the National Drought Mitigation Center says 90 percent of the population is seeing some form of drought. Runoff into the basin is estimated to come in at roughly 75 percent of average for 2022.

To help provide additional water downstream, USACE authorized increased release rates from Gavins Point and Fort Randall Dams starting in July, with those rates set to return to normal later this month.

“We will continue to make releases from Gavins Point Dam to provide flow support at a level 500 cubic feet per second above minimum service, through the end of the navigation flow support season,” Remus said.

Release rates from the Missouri River reservoirs may adjust throughout the winter to accommodate dry conditions that are set to continue or worsen through January.

The seasonal drought outlook, which extends through the end of January, shows drought conditions persisting and expanding across most of the upper Basin.

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